Archen, Cranidos, Tirtouga: Hatch Rates And Odds For Pokémon GO’s 7KM Fossil Eggs

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Pokemon GO

Credit: Niantic

Somehow, I got my Archen. I’m usually resigned to terrible luck when it comes to hatching eggs in Pokémon GOâ€"or at least that’s what I tell myself, when really I likely hew more closely to the actual odds of hatching creatures from eggs in this game, which tend to be abysmal. But they’re also one of the most reliable sources of income developer Niantic Labs has, which is likely why we’ve seen so many of them this year. Gotta catch ‘em all, as they say.

I believe out of my first 9 7km eggs I hatched during this eventâ€"I roll with a full suite of incubators, because I am a chumpâ€"I got exclusively Omanyte and Kabuto, two Pokémon I would have been very excited to see in 2017. The real prizes here are Cranidos, Shieldon, Tirtouga and Archen, with special emphasis placed on the last two.

The researchers at Silph Road have done some poking into the actual hatch rates, and they’ve come up with some data. Note that these are anecdotal based on people hatching eggs in the wild, so I doubt that these numbers line up 100% with the actual numbers, lurking somewhere on a a California server. But they can give us a very good idea of what to expect. Let’s take a look, based on 115 eggs:

Omanyte: 24.3%

Kabuto: 18.3%

Aerodactyl: 16.5%

Shieldon: 10.4%

Anorith: 10.4%

Lileep: 8.7%

Tirtouga: 4.3%

Archen: 3.5%

Craindos: 3.5%

So, in conclusion: it’s hard out there. You’re going to really struggle hatching any of these rare creatures if you’re just running your one free incubator, but you’re also going to struggle even if you’re shelling out cash to hatch multiple creatures at once.

I find that I really only pay much attention to standard, wild Pokémon in the first few days after a drop of new creatures, which is a shame: that’s some of the best gameplay this thing has to offer. The rest of my time with the game has become disappointingly focused on the egg meta, which has a way of turning Pokémon GO into an animated step counter. I hope we get some more exciting stuff in the wild soon, because I’m just getting a little tired of it.